Zimbabwe's Economics of Survival

Africa’s lauded despot, Robert Mugabe, seeks another 5 year term as president. He will cheat at the 2008 election as he has done each time since 1980, then - when his bolt hole is good and ready - he will hand over the reins to a trustee. He intends to amend Zimbabwe’s mutant constitution once again to allow this, and although courageous activists from the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) are trying to challenge the Bill in public, it will be privately rubber-stamped by Mugabe’s lapdogs in Parliament.

The SADC states will look on with approval - in particular South Africa. The current ANC regime profited well by just such a provision in their own constitution, when Nelson Mandela stepped down and Thabo Mbeki, all unelected, stepped in to fill those giant shoes with his neat little size sixes. It’s possible that Mbeki suggested this dodge to Mugabe - it’s a handy and trouble-free way for a ruling party to ensure a handpicked successor. However, Mbeki went on to face - and win - a free and fair election, whereas Mugabe dares not. Real elections for the people of Zimbabwe are not in Mugabe’s self-preservation plan.

Mugabe’s dirty tricks campaign is getting into gear: the leader of the opposition bludgeoned; a turbulent priest publicly shamed. As per the last election, he has siezed upon something to entice the rural povo and the party faithful. Having done the white farm thing, the only morsel left to offer is the remnant of Zimbabwe’s industrial and mining sectors. So the teflon dictator tables his ‘indigenisation’ bill, hoping to reward the remaining few ZPF voters with a slice of Anglo American or Lever Brothers.

It’s ironic that only when the ruined economy is portrayed as a threat to his rule, does Mugabe bother to turn his poisonous gaze upon it. And as usual, instead of taking steps to mend the economy (his tax base and feeding trough), he bashes. The man has never understood economics, let alone the concept of inflation - and at 83 he is unable to try. Instead, he betrays his ignorance in characteristic fashion: use force! Make them halve their prices! That should fix it! And he appoints yet another dangerous fool to implement his solution - Obert Mpofu: Government minister, murderer and practised extortionist.

However, while the world’s media boggles in wonder at the +10,000% inflation figures, what they fail to realise is that Mugabe and the band of underqualified sycophants he calls a Cabinet, cannot actually have much effect on Zim's economy now. They lost control of it some time ago. Zimbabwe is already a failed state and the country operates an alternative, informal economy - and will simply continue to do so no matter what Zanu-PF tries next. Like water finding its way past an obstacle, Zimbabwe’s people are so used to 'making a plan' that situations such as being ordered to halve your prices are seen as just another setback. And the ruling party’s robber-barons simply keep their heads down for a while, pledge extra loyalty, then return to business as usual. “One hand washes the other” is a well-known saying in Zimbabwe. Mugabe needs his band of villains, and they need him.

For the economists, it’s a field day. Zimbabwe is so way past any economics textbook that it is setting precedents and making case history every day it continues to function. Fundamental theories and assumptions are being challenged: exactly in what proportion does printing money create inflation - does it obey its own supply-demand cycle (and is it our fault for abandoning the gold standard)? At what point does an economy become ‘Failed’, and who decides when it is? If most of the population is now trading goods and services instead of using money, at what point does the currency become worthless? And other fascinating Tipping-Point questions.

Prof. Tony Hawkins, Eric Bloch and John Robertson are the Three Tenors in Zim economics, and will no doubt each produce a dramatic soap-opera of a textbook when it’s all over. They may as well combine their efforts and write alternate chapters - perhaps a good title would be ‘When Zimbabwe’s Fat Lady Sang’. Joice Mujuru and the other well-larded ruling party women might vie for the cover picture honours.

The entire government of Zanu-PF have already assured themselves a place of infamy in history. But will there be a place in history for the mothers who endure the agony of watching their children die of starvation? For the squandered wildlife and devastated eco-systems? For the millions of broken families and the thousands of murdered citizens whose only crime was to wish for their rights as human beings?

Another place in the history books will belong to the organisations and politicians who could have helped, but looked the other way. If these are our leaders, dear world citizen, who needs enemies?